This year's picks have been pretty good...31-9 last week, bringing the yearly total to 386-88 (81%).
Let's jump right into this week's picks - remember, the Reject is the Loser.
Games In The ACC
Virginia Tech (8-3, 5-2 in the ACC) at Virginia (3-8, 2-5 in the ACC)
Frank Beamer and his Hokies head to Charlottesville Saturday for a little in-state scuffle with the Cavaliers, and hope to survive the fight. Al Groh and his Gentlemen have struggled the entire year and will do their best to make their last game of 2009 memorable, and they will succeed...for a while. But the Gobblers survived Thanksgiving Day and are still living to tell about it...and it will be the same on Saturday.
Rod's Reject - Virginia
Boston College (7-4, 4-3 in the ACC) at Maryland (2-9, 1-6 in the ACC)
A woeful season ends Saturday for Maryland as they host Frank Spaziani's Eagles from Boston College, and I'm not sure the end-of-the-season party is going to end well for the Terps. Ralph Friedgen and the Turtles have had some close calls, but the record is what it is - which isn't good. This time of year, you've got what you've got and the better team usually wins. So it will be.
Rod's Reject - Maryland
Miami, Fla (8-3, 5-3 in the ACC) at South Florida (7-3, 3-3 in the Big East)
Randy Shannon and his Coral Gable Wind blow into Tampa Saturday for an afternoon rodeo with the Bulls, and I think they are gonna get more than they're bargaining for. Jim Leavitt and his Steers are more than capable of knocking the Wind off course, and I think they've got enough to weather the storm that the Hurricanes will bring. Question is...can they actually finish the game and come out on top?
Rod's Reject - In An Upset - Miami, Fla
Wake Forest (4-7, 2-5 in the ACC) at Duke (5-6, 3-4 in the ACC)
Actually thought that Wake Forest would have had a better season, but things didn't work out too well for Jim Grobe and his Demon Deacons. And I'm not sure how much better things will get for them Saturday when they visit Durham to take on the Blue Devils. David Cutcliffe has slowly brought some respectability back to the Duke program and will continue to improve the status of Blue Devil football. One way to do that is to get the program to an overall .500 record and to .500 in the ACC. Even though they can't go bowling with a win, the Blue Devils come out Saturday to prove a point.
Rod's Reject - In An Upset - Wake Forest
North Carolina (8-3, 4-3 in the ACC) at N.C. State (4-7, 1-6 in the ACC)
Butch Davis and the Tar Heels spend their Rivalry Saturday in Raleigh, and they had better be prepared for a fight. Though the Wolfpack is short on wins, they're gonna want to come right out and punch UNC in the mouth. The problem for N.C. State, though, is they don't have a whole lot to back up their first punch. The Tar Heels won't win a lot of awards for having the most prolific offense around, but the defense is pretty stout...and that will be the difference this weekend.
Rod's Reject - N.C. State
Georgia (6-5, 4-4 in the SEC) at Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-1 in the ACC)
Mark Richt and the Bulldogs head into the Big City Saturday to take on and take out the Yellow Jackets, but they better bring a lot more to this game than they have this year if they intend to walk out with a win. Paul Johnson and the Jackets will have the ground game going, and I don't think the Bulldog Defense will be able to do a lot about it. Georgia will be motivated to avenge last year's debacle, but those emotions only go so far. Then you have to play the game...block, tackle, etc. Advantage - Georgia Tech.
Rod's Reject - Georgia
Games In The SEC
Florida State (6-5, 4-4 in the ACC) at Florida (11-0, 8-0 in the SEC)
Bobby Bowden and his Seminoles gallop into Gainesville Saturday for what will be an ultra-emotional day for both teams. For Florida State, all the talk is about Bobby Bowden and how much longer he'll stay at FSU. For Florida, it's Senior Day, with many players taking the field for the last time for the Gators...including Tim Tebow. On the field, the Seminoles can put up some points, but won't be able to as much this week against the Gator defense. And the Seminole defense...well, let's just say I think they will be better next year. An exciting game, but the Gators pull away in the end.
Rod's Reject - Florida State
Tennessee (6-5, 3-4 in the SEC) at Kentucky (7-4, 3-4 in the SEC)
Wow...Tennessee has won 24 straight against Kentucky. To put that into perspective, the last time Kentucky beat the Volunteers was during my freshman year at USC-Aiken...in 1984. Lane Kiffin and UT will be ready for this one, but I think the Wildcats may be 'more ready.' The Wildcats trot across 27 Seniors on Senior Day before the game, and I'm sure UK and its fans are more than ready to end this nasty streak. And I think they will get it done.
Rod's Reject - In An Upset - Tennessee
Mississippi (8-3, 4-3 in the SEC) at Mississippi State (4-7, 2-5 in the SEC)
The 106th Egg Bowl kicks off in Starkville Saturday a little after noon, and Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs will be anxious to make it a happy one for all the fans dressed in Maroon. But Houston Nutt and his Rebels are finally hitting their stride and don't won't to drop this one to their rival. Mississippi State can run the ball well, but the Rebels defense isn't too bad and will limit what the Bulldogs can do. Then the balanced Rebel offense will take over and lead UM to the victory.
Rod's Reject - in a classic - Mississippi State
Alabama (11-0, 7-0 in the SEC) at Auburn (7-4, 3-4 in the SEC)
Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide are looking forward to completing an undefeated regular season, but will have to beat rival Auburn to do it. And that's not going to be easy. To win the Iron Bowl, Alabama's gonna have to do what the do and keep Auburn from getting their offense going. Like all these rivalry games, I think emotions and excitement keep this one close for a while, and eventually the Crimson Tide will wear down the Tigers on both side of the ball.
Rod's Reject - Auburn
Arkansas (7-4, 3-4 in the SEC) at LSU (8-3, 4-3 in the SEC)
Bobby Petrino and the Razorbacks look to accomplish a rare feat...beating LSU at night in Baton Rouge. And Arkansas might have the firepower to do it. Les Miles and the Tigers will have to quickly regroup from the end-of-the-game fiasco last week that certainly has to have them down a bit. LSU doesn't have a lot of ways to score points, and even though the Tiger defense is tough, Arkansas can get some points. The Razorbacks ding up the scoreboard just enough to sneak out with a win.
Rod's Reject - In An Upset - LSU
The Big One In South Carolina
Clemson (8-3, 6-2 in the ACC) at South Carolina (6-5, 3-5 in the SEC)
Could write a book on the analysis of this game, but the actions on the field will ultimately decide the 107th game between these two schools.
The outcome of this game will be determined by the following 3 Key Areas.
1. The Defenses
Statistically speaking, both the Clemson and South Carolina defenses are about as tough as they come. Clemson (#12 in the country in total defense) and USC (#17 in the country in total defense) will both show why they are ranked in the category as high as they are. Both also are ranked high nationally in passing defense (USC - #7; Clemson #12). So with both defenses being close to equal, does one have an advantage over the other's offense more so than the other? Yes, and here's why. USC had done really well with its Passing Defense, but has struggled a little against teams with decent rushing attacks. Clemson's offense is balanced (204 ypg passing; 166 ypg rushing) and will present the Gamecock defense with a tough challenge of having to stop both aspects. Conversely, the Gamecock offense is very one-sided (240 ypg passing: 116 ypg rushing) - no, that doesn't look like it's real off-kilter, but it is, and I'll explain that in Section 2 - Offense below. Also, the Gamecock's strength offensively (passing) goes right into the teeth of the Tiger defense as they are one of the best passing defenses in the country. Any inability of USC to run the ball will make the Gamecocks one-dimensional and will play right into the strength of the Tigers. To top that off, Clemson is #2 in the country in getting interceptions (20 for the year). A positive for USC is that over the last 3 games, Clemson's defense has given up over 20 points in each game - to competition that isn't exactly the toughest (Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia) - so there is some hope for the Gamecocks.
2. The Offenses
USC Offense
Above, I mentioned that the USC offense was not balanced, even though the overall season numbers aren't bad (240 ypg passing; 116 ypg rushing). But here is why its offense has the potential to become one-dimensional Saturday. Against teams that have Top 20 defenses, USC put up the following rushing stats, and lost all but one of the games (#1 defense in the country Florida - 64 rushing yards; #2 defense Alabama - 61 rushing yards; #19 defense Mississippi - 65 rushing yards; #20 defense Tennessee - 65 rushing yards). Clemson has the #12 defense in the country - you do the math. I don't see where the Gamecocks will magically become a balanced offense against a good defense in the 12th game of the year. As far as scoring goes, USC is averaging 20 points per game for the season, but only 12.5 points per game against Top 20 defenses - and again, Clemson is #12 in the country in total defense. And one more thing to be worried about for USC - the Gamecocks have given up 33 sacks this year (#109 in the country in sacks allowed). Clemson's defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 33 times this year, good for #11 in the country in that category. That's not a good matchup for USC.
Clemson Offense
The Tiger offense has been clicking over the past 6 games, though the defensive competition has not been overwhelming. The past 6 games, the opposing defenses are ranked as follows (Wake Forest - #73 defense in country; Miami - #33; Coastal Carolina (#55 in Division I-AA; Florida State - #106; N.C. State - #52; Virginia - #47). But to their credit, Clemson has dinged the scoreboard against all 6 teams, averaging about 41 points per game during the 6-game winning streak. Clemson quarterback Kyle Parker has also gotten the hot hand over the 6-game winning streak, hitting many different targets for 13 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Against a comparable defense (TCU), Parker struggled though as he went 17-37 for 192 yards with no TDs or INTs.
3. - Kicking/Special Teams
I don't really need to put a lot of analysis on this area, other than to say this area is to Clemson's advantage. I think we all know why.
Intangibles
One of the biggest intangibles I see for this game is overall confidence. For USC, the confidence level has to be down a little after seeing another promising season slide downhill. I fully believe this team is a different team versus last year's that seemingly never showed up from the kickoff at Clemson. It's much more of a true team. But still, it's difficult to be full of confidence when you're on a losing streak. Clemson has all the confidence in the world (which could get them into trouble in this game). While it is true that the Atlantic Division of the ACC may not be the strongest around, Clemson has still rattled off some impressive numbers lately, and if nothing else, that allows your team to come into a game playing with full confidence.
C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford also have to be listed as intangibles - for obvious reasons.
What Will Happen?
This one will be a scrap, for sure. Clemson has one 9 out of the last 10 played in Columbia. The last one USC won in Willy-B? 2001, a game that started at Noon. Any karma there? I'm not sure. I know Clemson is riding a hot streak over the last 6 games - scoring a total of 249 points in that streak. USC's offense, on the other hand, has scored 227 - for the entire year. So the Gamecocks operate Saturday on a razor-thin margin of error. For USC to win, they have to establish some kind of running game, score when they get a chance (TDs versus FGs), and keep Spiller, Ford, and Palmer in check). Since the USC offense won't be able to score over 17 points, it will need some help from it's defense and special teams to score points - or hold Clemson to under 17 points. One slip-up by allowing Spiller/Ford a special teams or offensive TD will put USC in a really tough spot, because I'm not sure they've got enough offense to overcome. A real wild one in Columbia sees the Tigers having too any weapons for USC and the Gamecocks being turned into a one-dimensional team, having to pass into one of the nation's top pass defenses. It's a close one, but the Tigers edge the Gamecocks in an epic battle. But it's gonna be tight.
Rod's Reject - South Carolina
Other Losers This Week
Pittsburgh will lose to West Virginia
Louisville will lose to Rutgers
Eastern Michigan will lose to Akron
Wyoming will lose to Colorado State
Memphis will lose to Tulsa
Illinois will lose to Cincinnati
Colorado will lose to Nebraska
Toledo will lose to Bowling Green
Nevada will lose to Boise State
Syracuse will lose to Connecticut
Missouri will lose to Kansas
New Mexico will lose to TCU
Southern Mississippi will lose to East Carolina
Tulane will lose to SMU
Baylor will lose to Texas Tech
Oklahoma State will lose to Oklahoma
Utah will lose to BYU
Rice will lose to Houston
Washington State will lose to Washington
Arizona State will lose to Arizona
New Mexico State will lose to San Jose State
Notre Dame will lose to Stanford
UCLA will lose USC
Hawaii will lose to Navy
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